Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Cameron Norrie
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2fd1727e8bfda088cc3e84fd1929f90695c497d1c57f741495bb1e95e88fa29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carlos Alcarazof Carlos Alcaraz, Cameron Norrie
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $355,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $355,035 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Cameron Norrie | 2c | 39,132$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.66 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Cameron Norrie | 3c | 31,262$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.55 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cameron Norrie | 2c | 15,523$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.66 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cameron Norrie | 2c | 15,332$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.23 | 8,152 | 45.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L | +155.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…4403backed Cameron Norrie | 3c | 14,508$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.74 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Cameron Norrie | 2c | 13,017$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.3 | 1,205 | 8%96 W · 1,109 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…84c1backed Cameron Norrie | 6c | 9,400$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aee…fad4backed Cameron Norrie | 8c | 9,116$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Cameron Norrie | 7c | 9,074$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.21 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Cameron Norrie | 3c | 6,100$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.93 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Cameron Norrie | 0c | 5,374$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f35…95dabacked Cameron Norrie | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 450 | 44%198 W · 252 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Cameron Norrie | 1c | 4,887$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 255 | 0.8%2 W · 253 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Cameron Norrie | 6c | 4,719$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.46 | 6,596 | 50.7%3,341 W · 3,255 L | +259.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Cameron Norrie | 6c | 4,344$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 717 | 25.2%181 W · 536 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Cameron Norrie | 6c | 4,216$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.96 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Cameron Norrie | 4c | 4,163$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.78 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2073…385bbacked Cameron Norrie | 7c | 4,037$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…8c18backed Cameron Norrie | 7c | 3,714$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.84 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…c122backed Cameron Norrie | 7c | 3,332$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 460 | 30.4%140 W · 320 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Cameron Norrie | 6c | 3,001$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.07 | 91 | 34.1%31 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb62f…6836backed Cameron Norrie | 3c | 2,900$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Cameron Norrie | 7c | 2,818$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.24 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcb…36c9backed Cameron Norrie | 7c | 2,710$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cameron Norrie | 6c | 2,524$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.62 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Cameron Norrie | 2c | 2,500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b0…02c6backed Cameron Norrie | 2c | 2,419$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 80 | 7.5%6 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…937abacked Cameron Norrie | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 519 | 33.1%172 W · 347 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2628…757bbacked Cameron Norrie | 1c | 1,843$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cameron Norrie | 4c | 1,645$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Cameron Norrie | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…9f40backed Cameron Norrie | 4c | 1,429$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ea…7f8dbacked Cameron Norrie | 7c | 1,371$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…fef0backed Cameron Norrie | 3c | 1,220$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 226 | 34.5%78 W · 148 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Cameron Norrie | 5c | 1,212$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 300 | 31.7%95 W · 205 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Cameron Norrie | 7c | 1,180$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 1,404 | 28.7%403 W · 1,001 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Cameron Norrie | 7c | 1,097$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eff…db12backed Cameron Norrie | 7c | 1,069$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Cameron Norrie | 3c | 1,018$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,020 | 49.9%509 W · 511 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…5286backed Cameron Norrie | 7c | 1,005$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…9baebacked Cameron Norrie | 6c | 962.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 908 | 54.5%495 W · 413 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…54d2backed Cameron Norrie | 6c | 893.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cameron Norrie | 3c | 727.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…543bbacked Cameron Norrie | 7c | 613.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Cameron Norrie | 7c | 586$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3a…df40backed Cameron Norrie | 7c | 480$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 238 | 47.1%112 W · 126 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Cameron Norrie | 5c | 464.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cameron Norrie | 4c | 422.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cameron Norrie | 5c | 391.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 949 | 40.1%381 W · 568 L | +30.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Cameron Norrie | 6c | 388.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Cameron Norrie | 7c | 370.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 423 | 44%186 W · 237 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4748…9666backed Cameron Norrie | 7c | 359.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 484 | 40.3%195 W · 289 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Cameron Norrie | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,563 | 40%625 W · 938 L | -32.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Cameron Norrie | 5c | 345.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 451 | 47.2%213 W · 238 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef8f…6461backed Cameron Norrie | 7c | 342.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c5…8c8abacked Cameron Norrie | 7c | 327.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Cameron Norrie | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…8228backed Cameron Norrie | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Cameron Norrie | 5c | 243.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Cameron Norrie | 5c | 240.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 6,740 | 48.8%3,288 W · 3,452 L | +58.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Cameron Norrie | 5c | 226.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Cameron Norrie | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Cameron Norrie | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x790d…9995backed Cameron Norrie | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141d…cdadbacked Cameron Norrie | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Cameron Norrie | 7c | 182.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2,144 | 54.2%1,162 W · 982 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fd…ef8ebacked Cameron Norrie | 8c | 162.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…77eebacked Cameron Norrie | 8c | 132.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 819 | 33.1%271 W · 548 L | -30.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Cameron Norriethis page
- Alcaraz vs. Norrie: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Norrie: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Norrie: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Cameron Norrie: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs NorrieAlcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Norrie (+1.5)Alcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.