Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad3f15a23a1269941a89cb48c3ac3e63987cd5722d68b308f227415005dbfcea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d09…25cabacked Yes | 18c | 9,863$1,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,775.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 16c | 5,148$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.65 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 18c | 3,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 18c | 2,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb96c…6cc6backed Yes | 19c | 1,632$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 101 | 59.4%60 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked No | 78c | 799.99$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…f862backed Yes | 19c | 505.26$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 22c | 463.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 193 | 36.8%71 W · 122 L | -14.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…2ebebacked Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…403bbacked Yes | 18c | 385$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x843b…2673backed Yes | 12c | 335.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12b…f1dabacked Yes | 15c | 330$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…bfaebacked Yes | 20c | 305$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35fd…582dbacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 18c | 231$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 24c | 203.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 80c | 187.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +27.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 21c | 182$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 272 | 35.7%97 W · 175 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 15c | 176$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bf…345abacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 78c | 129$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 227 | 64.8%147 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…a19bbacked Yes | 19c | 125.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 420 | 43.8%184 W · 236 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72d…a4e0backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9730…4504backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…1230backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Yes | 20c | 96.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa78c…cb69backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb41…1fffbacked Yes | 19c | 88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5c82backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 46.2%78 W · 91 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 18c | 57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 79c | 28.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-13?Yes won
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-09-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.