Premier League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-09-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e0d194f3d63ce7d5443c0c8f277830f0c22ce0ba6a14164f9b2eb0464d235f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Yes | 11c | 22,222$2,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,444.42 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 9c | 13,100$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.48 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 11c | 13,000$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 11c | 7,200$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Yes | 10c | 5,129$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 32cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,136$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 233 | 25.8%60 W · 173 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Yes | 10c | 3,273$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 11c | 2,500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…176bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,302$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 7c | 2,299$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 172 | 34.3%59 W · 113 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…6c2bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,222$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…26a2backed Yes | 13c | 1,081$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…c16abacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 11c | 983$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.77 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 10c | 880$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 12c | 725$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 272 | 35.7%97 W · 175 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 10c | 555.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…1ab3backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 8c | 478$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 670 | 42.2%283 W · 387 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 12c | 399.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd797…d380backed Yes | 12c | 257.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…24babacked Yes | 6c | 247.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 12c | 225$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e35…da51backed Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…b153backed Yes | 12c | 201.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…bbb9backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d1…45afbacked Yes | 9c | 192.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 11c | 123.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 262 | 29.8%78 W · 184 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9730…4504backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa078…5b2bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +178.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-09-13?this page
- Will Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?No won
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.