NBA · resolved market
Will Porzingis return by end of NBA Finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad6cb7b3a713fbbf88e9a4209be82078847d2f6d038bd348eb1f60146a25f4b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 76c | 1,328$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 27c | 500$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 29c | 500$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356 | 191 | 52.4%100 W · 91 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8f…026ebacked Yes | 15c | 340$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +557%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 30c | 274.74$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.45 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.5 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 50c | 176.53$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de9…4b3fbacked Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 14c | 101$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1d…f471backed No | 63c | 88.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e95…7d82backed Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…6e9ebacked Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa706…9363backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.