Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad79d3a2dbdf4b09190cdf03bb00ed249ae04982157f4aea3b9825da0b3c0e79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 4c | 366.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 312.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 285.81$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 193.69$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 179.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 23c | 173.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 11c | 166.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 42c | 130.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 14c | 115.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 46c | 104.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 104.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 24c | 102.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…62afbacked Yes | 27c | 94.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 41c | 93.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 16c | 84.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 43c | 61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 26c | 49.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 40c | 49.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…ac5cbacked No | 60c | 48.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 61c | 48.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 42c | 47.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 62c | 46.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 44c | 45.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 67c | 44.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcda…c199backed Yes | 35c | 42.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 42.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 41.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 35.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 80c | 32.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 33c | 30.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 79c | 27.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 50c | 25.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 49c | 24.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 24.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…02d4backed Yes | 47c | 23.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 60c | 22.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 75c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…0489backed No | 73c | 20.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 62c | 18.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…b1b2backed No | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 57c | 18.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 63c | 17.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 73c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.