Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd62b7051bca8e87c43d616ac50752e533e4439ed79e328d7bb4b3e3ad66259a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 565.67$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 524.86$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 23c | 355.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 194.79$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 184.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…62afbacked Yes | 25c | 178.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 38c | 174.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0a…a70bbacked Yes | 45c | 165.93$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 21c | 136.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 35c | 130.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 11c | 130.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 52c | 123.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 13c | 123$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 47c | 120.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 19c | 103.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 40c | 101.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 17c | 87.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 20c | 79.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 34c | 72.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 21c | 70.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 65.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 63.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe66…e61abacked No | 65c | 58.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…5b9abacked Yes | 25c | 53.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 53.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 53.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 23c | 51.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 72c | 51.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 50.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 64c | 44.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 38c | 44.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 63c | 37.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 37.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 32.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 41c | 27.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…ac5cbacked No | 78c | 27.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 74c | 25.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 72c | 23.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 70c | 23.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 63c | 22.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 74c | 18.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 16.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.