Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac9f8af3a42f03904a056b85dc07ecaa613ba57cdca53df7eb41971409c43f32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 6c | 638.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 40c | 528.94$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 512.05$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…c4d3backed Yes | 31c | 185.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +90%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 71c | 156.08$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 150.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 7c | 148.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 21c | 145.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 16c | 142.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 133.52$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 121$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed Yes | 13c | 115.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 20c | 112.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 72c | 111.55$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed No | 76c | 111$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 106.9$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 49c | 96.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…62afbacked Yes | 66c | 75.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed Yes | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…ac5cbacked Yes | 31c | 66.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…a752backed Yes | 54c | 57.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 22c | 54.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…b1b2backed Yes | 22c | 54.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 35c | 53.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 24c | 50.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…b090backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 66c | 49.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 46.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 52c | 44.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 76c | 44.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 42.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 74c | 41.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 79c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…b516backed Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked Yes | 44c | 35.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…ee36backed Yes | 65c | 33.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 33.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 33.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 54c | 33.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…293cbacked Yes | 47c | 32.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…978bbacked No | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked Yes | 66c | 30.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x892c…2605backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7444…d815backed No | 69c | 28.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed Yes | 46c | 25.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 77c | 21.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 55c | 19.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 71c | 17.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a41…0b28backed Yes | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 68c | 16.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 73c | 14.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…9ce1backed No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 13.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.