Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Osnabrück win on 2026-08-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xada57c5fdb5fdc531804802c90184c34cf5fbb850c79e7db6e9e8ece52879f7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 7c | 13,714$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.92 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 8c | 12,319$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.16 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 8c | 7,701$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.85 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 9c | 3,849$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.62 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 4c | 2,238$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 17c | 1,591$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.47 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yes | 6c | 823.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Yes | 3c | 702.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 2c | 561.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 7c | 542$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 7c | 541.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 17c | 521.61$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 6c | 481.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 17c | 424.54$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 7c | 401$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Yes | 7c | 373.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 17c | 355$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 17c | 352.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 18c | 277.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 7c | 237.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3600…d8a6backed Yes | 22c | 223.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 6c | 212.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Yes | 7c | 143.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Yes | 13c | 115.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Yes | 18c | 103.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 18c | 86.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Yes | 18c | 72.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed No | 74c | 67.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Osnabrück win on 2026-08-08?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfL Osnabrück end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-08-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.