Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-08-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70eb6d95d578c3dcc22f809ccbef51429f91f8d9c9354b7b7a652fc7a4271df2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 43c | 3,132$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.83 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…83a8backed No | 8c | 2,469$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 73c | 2,195$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.15 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd273…17eabacked No | 5c | 2,118$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf46…27d9backed Yes | 53c | 1,810$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 60c | 1,529$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 1c | 1,061$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 40c | 803.73$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.44 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 40c | 780.55$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.13 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 52c | 556.48$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.45 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked No | 20c | 547.15$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 41c | 536.9$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.13 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 57c | 400$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Yes | 56c | 369.99$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 60c | 325$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.33 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…fc66backed Yes | 79c | 300.95$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa212…9161backed No | 22c | 299.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 58c | 296.38$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.48 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 20c | 267.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 40c | 262.25$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 41c | 225.56$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.48 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 41c | 214.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.99 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked No | 22c | 212.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed No | 44c | 178.23$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 20c | 146.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 44c | 141.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ec…a9c4backed Yes | 58c | 139$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 47cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 44c | 134.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 41c | 129.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed Yes | 59c | 123.8$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 42c | 119$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 44c | 116.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 46c | 115.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 49c | 106$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…b24abacked Yes | 69c | 104.19$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…91fcbacked Yes | 52c | 103.15$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb8…77d7backed No | 23c | 100.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed No | 29c | 99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…358bbacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed No | 45c | 85.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 58c | 81.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1586…b94abacked Yes | 80c | 78.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 72.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5b…3ea9backed Yes | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 79c | 66.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 41c | 60.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…2e7cbacked No | 41c | 57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Yes | 78c | 46.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…2602backed No | 25c | 45.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed No | 32c | 43.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 49c | 42.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 42c | 41.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked No | 36c | 38.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b10…2920backed Yes | 59c | 37.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69df…fe16backed Yes | 59c | 35.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc809…5f4ebacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…ce9bbacked Yes | 58c | 34.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…66f3backed No | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…c61cbacked Yes | 78c | 28.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 42c | 27.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1040…ac10backed Yes | 77c | 26.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5837…8cdebacked Yes | 60c | 26.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 64c | 25.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 59c | 19.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-08-08?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. VfL Osnabrück end in a draw?No won
- Will VfL Osnabrück win on 2026-08-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.