MLB · resolved market
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xada90fa5057d46c6a31cd0f389d121c6ad432cdda258679eaaa851c3ef200cc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Colorado Rockies, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 75c | 1,855$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.3 | 189 | 59.8%113 W · 76 L | +14.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…eda7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 928.57$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.57 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 30c | 908.57$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.57 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colorado Rockies | 24c | 810.6$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.32 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c6…55acbacked Colorado Rockies | 25c | 571.32$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.83 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Colorado Rockies | 25c | 450$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 423.75$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.68 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Colorado Rockies | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Colorado Rockies | 32c | 196.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Colorado Rockies | 25c | 107.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Colorado Rockies | 32c | 103.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies | 35c | 90.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Colorado Rockies | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,141 | 46.3%528 W · 613 L | +36.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 75c | 54.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 75c | 31.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 80c | 24.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 2.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 3.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.