MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e8adc6a0b7bf2cae9855f4c2a8a4d124bebb739113a1e74f002a1c2c219568f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 3,655$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.43 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 2,693$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.44 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 26c | 482.41$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.17 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 399.03$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.61 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x851e…d153backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 233.64$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 216.78$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.71 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 24c | 210$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Colorado Rockies | 77c | 95.62$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies | 75c | 66.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5955…f86ebacked Colorado Rockies | 62c | 61.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…687ebacked Colorado Rockies | 62c | 59.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 67cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…a251backed Colorado Rockies | 62c | 56.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0463…f69ebacked Colorado Rockies | 62c | 56.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Colorado Rockies | 71c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Colorado Rockies | 67c | 45.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 27.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x485a…a7c3backed Colorado Rockies | 74c | 22.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 2.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 3.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.