Mls · resolved market
CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadab04ff6e83d9ad3a37f2ac233431ef5e0c9807316ab94c51e3001935536a5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 33c | 499.73$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.91 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 74c | 400.68$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.69 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 79c | 372.39$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 75c | 347.62$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.37 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…05b2backed Over | 80c | 314.46$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 78cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 67c | 312$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.01 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 24c | 307.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 24c | 303.31$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 33c | 302$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 25c | 198$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 162.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 74c | 156.95$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 76c | 132.63$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8041…fc83backed Under | 22c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 79c | 73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 20c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 75c | 50.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 78c | 50.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 79c | 49.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Over | 79c | 22.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Over | 78c | 16.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 1.5this page
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: New England Revolution O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 2.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 3.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 4.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)New England Revolution won
- Spread: New England Revolution (-1.5)CF Montréal won
- Spread: New England Revolution (-2.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.