Mls · resolved market
CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf10df9267441a0c79c3b586963b384c1eff77bbc46409e33f1e166b2f873666e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 76c | 2,641$2,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.9 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 29c | 2,274$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.65 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 42c | 2,183$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.48 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 28c | 1,250$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.3 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 69c | 705.43$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.97 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 524.48$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.85 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 32c | 523.44$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.7wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 37c | 405.62$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.05 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 44c | 304.08$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.79 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 66c | 232.33$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.24 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 76c | 207.82$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 39c | 206.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.61 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 51c | 198.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.38 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Over | 21c | 185$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…7fd6backed Over | 30c | 180$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 52c | 144.8$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 39c | 134.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 27c | 128.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 50c | 120.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 29c | 98.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 75c | 98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 57c | 86.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 73 | 67.1%49 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 42c | 67.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 30c | 64.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 39c | 49.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 58c | 47.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…31c4backed Under | 36c | 47.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe249…a684backed Over | 49c | 40.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under | 78c | 38.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 51c | 33.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 55c | 32.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 45c | 26.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -12.3wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -94.4%equal weight | 25-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Under | 50c | 22.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Over | 54c | 19.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…90b1backed Over | 60c | 16.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 4.5this page
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: New England Revolution O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 2.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 3.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)New England Revolution won
- Spread: New England Revolution (-1.5)CF Montréal won
- Spread: New England Revolution (-2.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.