Mls · resolved market
Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea9d6fa92e9114b7296e574a5cc792e601ab29040970be8b6873424a14ad73f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New England Revolutionof CF Montréal, New England Revolution
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked New England Revolution | 77c | 1,858$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.34 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed CF Montréal | 23c | 1,009$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.07 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked CF Montréal | 23c | 860.18$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.84 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked CF Montréal | 10c | 666$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New England Revolution | 77c | 632.88$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.56 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed CF Montréal | 12c | 195.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed CF Montréal | 23c | 179.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked CF Montréal | 11c | 128$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed CF Montréal | 23c | 73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed CF Montréal | 20c | 59.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed New England Revolution | 77c | 37.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked New England Revolution | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed New England Revolution | 77c | 26.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed New England Revolution | 77c | 25.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed New England Revolution | 77c | 25.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed New England Revolution | 77c | 24.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)this page
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: New England Revolution O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 2.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 3.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 4.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: New England Revolution (-1.5)CF Montréal won
- Spread: New England Revolution (-2.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.