Mls · resolved market
Spread: New England Revolution (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a1c9ba42fdbc4f82e5a5a468591b0838d4959484f6f7f43a48a0994b263a6cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CF Montréalof New England Revolution, CF Montréal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed CF Montréal | 74c | 1,970$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.79 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed8c…c7b5backed New England Revolution | 12c | 1,914$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked CF Montréal | 46c | 1,867$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.22 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked CF Montréal | 43c | 1,155$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.95 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed CF Montréal | 75c | 1,100$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked New England Revolution | 50c | 700.59$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.79 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed CF Montréal | 78c | 625$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.5 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed New England Revolution | 24c | 401.67$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed New England Revolution | 12c | 356.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed New England Revolution | 24c | 266$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed New England Revolution | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…bcd6backed New England Revolution | 13c | 176$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New England Revolution | 58c | 169.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked New England Revolution | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New England Revolution | 51c | 153.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked CF Montréal | 71c | 106$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked CF Montréal | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed New England Revolution | 12c | 98.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 106 | 12.3%13 W · 93 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed New England Revolution | 20c | 94.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15e…80b5backed New England Revolution | 12c | 91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked CF Montréal | 77c | 65.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed CF Montréal | 60c | 57.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New England Revolution | 57c | 54.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed New England Revolution | 59c | 42.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed New England Revolution | 58c | 36.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed New England Revolution | 58c | 36.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked New England Revolution | 58c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e82…7ab7backed CF Montréal | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +5.3wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed New England Revolution | 49c | 22.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed New England Revolution | 58c | 21.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked CF Montréal | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked CF Montréal | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New England Revolution (-1.5)this page
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: New England Revolution O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 2.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 3.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 4.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. New England Revolution: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)New England Revolution won
- Spread: New England Revolution (-2.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.