NFL · resolved market
Will Quinyon Mitchell win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadb4f63a3e28ba34c7e1bf8807d6172534453cc95b729e2c8a21b1cc08c99ad8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b9e…74aebacked Yes | 3c | 4,253$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 36c | 1,257$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.14 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.18 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe939…0240backed Yes | 46c | 970$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad68…883cbacked No | 54c | 970$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c7…3afbbacked Yes | 46c | 970$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…d7e7backed No | 54c | 970$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186f…b135backed Yes | 42c | 928$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…f185backed No | 58c | 928$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809b…ded1backed Yes | 42c | 928$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0459…8176backed No | 58c | 928$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 4c | 913.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Yes | 10c | 789.05$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 46c | 562.74$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 18c | 447.26$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 23c | 361$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 360.95$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.33 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 9c | 312$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 11c | 298.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed No | 74c | 224.17$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 162 | 59.9%97 W · 65 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 16c | 177.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 32c | 88.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Quinyon Mitchell win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?this page
- Will Braden Fiske win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Chop Robinson win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Cooper DeJean win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Jared Verse win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?Yes won
- Will Laiatu Latu win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.