Bundesliga · resolved market
Will RB Leipzig vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadc255c136d5c2e333cf13c0377caeed45f3e658acf0d90f7190c28df583c7c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 66c | 29,409$19,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,941.76 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 29c | 19,542$5,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,667.26 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Yes | 53c | 13,309$7,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,019.48 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 37c | 12,152$4,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,488.24 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed No | 53c | 10,090$5,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,742.29 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 9,659$7,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050.24 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 12c | 9,242$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.01 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 27c | 4,193$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.91 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 3,019$2,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.03 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0afd…b9c9backed Yes | 28c | 2,842$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.91 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…02d2backed No | 79c | 1,109$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.79 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked No | 80c | 776$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.2 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 10c | 750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 72c | 666.55$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.64 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 72c | 666.55$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.64 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 72c | 666.55$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.64 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 73c | 403.01$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.83 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…77b7backed Yes | 20c | 390.32$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 24c | 269.63$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.67 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…7a4ebacked Yes | 37c | 262.13$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed No | 54c | 262.06$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.55 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86be…4490backed Yes | 20c | 261.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a21…50d3backed Yes | 20c | 218.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 75c | 192.22$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 10c | 189.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…ea46backed Yes | 47c | 188.43$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f4…c90bbacked Yes | 55c | 161.43$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…0e08backed Yes | 20c | 119$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 19c | 99.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 25c | 95.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 20c | 95.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 20c | 92.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 32c | 90.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8e…df84backed Yes | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 34c | 85.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed No | 54c | 84.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 72c | 77.23$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 70c | 76.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Yes | 20c | 72.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 19c | 63.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 21c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed No | 61c | 57.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 20c | 57.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked No | 72c | 53.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…6e76backed Yes | 20c | 52.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 20c | 52.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…cfeebacked Yes | 21c | 49.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7852…3eabbacked Yes | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed No | 51c | 38.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf86…1f71backed No | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed No | 75c | 29.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 76c | 29.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda1c…197dbacked No | 68c | 28.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19a8…b852backed No | 80c | 27.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 72c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked No | 71c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RB Leipzig vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?this page
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-04-11?No won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.