Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadc8024ed4ec3af6381ad587369262b59defeb2938636e1d9ca51d3bfe4912b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 251.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 6c | 244.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 14c | 229.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 216$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 196.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 74c | 165$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 151.24$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 143.08$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 118.34$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 24c | 104.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 79c | 102.01$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 27c | 81.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 81.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 72.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…5cf9backed Yes | 20c | 72.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…ee11backed Yes | 19c | 69.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 29c | 67.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 66.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 24c | 52.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 51.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 29c | 51.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 78c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 71c | 39.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 30c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 34.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 33c | 33.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 31.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 28.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 68c | 24.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 65c | 22.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 22.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…cf5cbacked No | 72c | 19.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed No | 74c | 14.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.