Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x195741b113f7cb0c0369d714b92fa4fc73789c31a2ae7413470a5808154e1bb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 10c | 273.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.73 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 225.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 78c | 163.79$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.09 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 76c | 161.08$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 68c | 155.41$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 130.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.24 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 126$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 116.04$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 70c | 115.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 24c | 113.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 110.24$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.13 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 34c | 92.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 50c | 88.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 84.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 84.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 36c | 81.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 73c | 81.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 81.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 79.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad6…29f2backed Yes | 68c | 73.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 70c | 71.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 67.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…5cf9backed Yes | 35c | 67.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 62.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 59.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 71c | 56.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 55.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 30c | 54.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 23c | 53.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bea…bab9backed No | 78c | 53.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 53.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 48c | 52.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 75c | 41.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 55c | 39.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 31c | 39.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 71c | 39.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 27c | 39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261a…c3c3backed Yes | 63c | 38.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 32c | 37.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 32c | 34.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 58c | 33.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 33.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…92adbacked Yes | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 69c | 28.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 67c | 28.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 68c | 24.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 54c | 23.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 69c | 22.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 68c | 21.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 69c | 21.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 57c | 21.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 71c | 20.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 79c | 19.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 57c | 19.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 78c | 18.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 72c | 14.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.