Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c2857f871b489ed182398eaeed5c5d357e50ca8f4f9020a7775401c265b9f86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 344.29$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 288.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 67c | 261.73$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.55 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 76c | 161$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 146.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 41c | 143.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.92 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…ab06backed Yes | 13c | 128.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 19c | 127.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 126$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 79c | 115.33$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 19c | 106.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 105.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 91.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…8034backed Yes | 23c | 86.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3728…a76dbacked Yes | 28c | 80.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…5cf9backed Yes | 21c | 77.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 72.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 39c | 70.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 78c | 64.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd220…a8bdbacked Yes | 54c | 63.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 79c | 60.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 78c | 53.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 20c | 51.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 51.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 50.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…b0aebacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 43c | 49.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 42.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 73c | 40.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 37c | 39.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 38c | 37.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 79c | 36.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 30.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 80c | 30.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 58c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…149bbacked No | 79c | 29.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 56c | 29.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 42c | 25.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 48c | 22.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bea…bab9backed Yes | 65c | 20.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4876…22e2backed Yes | 59c | 19.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed No | 78c | 17.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 76c | 17.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a2…5c31backed No | 77c | 16.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 79c | 15.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed No | 78c | 14.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.