Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Vallejo (-1.5) vs Travaglia (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae059e51007f6b473b16d7db733e683bb18bb9a539de02e2d8b8747636cef401
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vallejoof Vallejo, Travaglia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f03…766dbacked Vallejo | 50c | 10,008$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,007.87 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Travaglia | 52c | 3,252$1,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,693.13 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Travaglia | 50c | 2,721$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.61 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Travaglia | 47c | 1,659$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.25 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Travaglia | 49c | 970.1$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.35 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Travaglia | 50c | 496.1$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.01 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Travaglia | 51c | 480$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.8 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Vallejo | 44c | 234.61$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.38 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Travaglia | 56c | 234.61$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.38 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Vallejo | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x693b…84e3backed Vallejo | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 90 | 63.3%57 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Travaglia | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Travaglia | 52c | 159.22$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Travaglia | 34c | 107.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b77…6ba1backed Travaglia | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Travaglia | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 264 | 41.7%110 W · 154 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Travaglia | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Travaglia | 49c | 83.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Travaglia | 62c | 80.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Travaglia | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 482 | 45.6%220 W · 262 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Vallejo | 72c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Vallejo | 62c | 57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 335 | 50.1%168 W · 167 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Vallejo | 46c | 40.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Vallejo | 51c | 35.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Vallejo | 34c | 33.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…667bbacked Travaglia | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 214 | 19.6%42 W · 172 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Travaglia | 54c | 27.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Travaglia | 49c | 23.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Travaglia | 53c | 22.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 586 | 65.5%384 W · 202 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Vallejo (-1.5) vs Travaglia (+1.5)this page
- Adolfo Vallejo vs. Stefano Travaglia: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Vallejo vs TravagliaVallejo won
- Swedish Open: Adolfo Vallejo vs Stefano TravagliaAdolfo Vallejo won
- Vallejo vs. Travaglia: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Vallejo vs. Travaglia: Match O/U 22.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.