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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 27?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,956
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,765

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,956 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes21c594.76$122 inLost-$121.9410,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No77c455.92$352 inWon+$103.678,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7735…4740backed Yes19c400$76 inLost-$7626433.7%89 W · 175 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No79c306.99$242 inWon+$64.6960123.6%142 W · 459 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes12c304.29$36 inLost-$35.869712.4%12 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+61%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbce…507dbacked Yes20c276.05$55 inLost-$55.158831.8%28 W · 60 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+59.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes6c260.98$17 inLost-$16.8221423.8%51 W · 163 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes17c222$37 inLost-$36.863,93923.2%913 W · 3,026 L+125.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No79c220.77$175 inWon+$46.252,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb66…9085backed Yes21c168$35 inLost-$35.28911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes23c138.48$31 inLost-$31.2260032%192 W · 408 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes18c121.17$22 inLost-$22.44,70026.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L+64.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes17c102.99$17 inLost-$17.2529642.6%126 W · 170 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c82…6b5dbacked Yes19c101.8$19 inLost-$19.114146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes21c87.45$19 inLost-$18.665,25549.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L-163.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No79c66.31$52 inWon+$14.141,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3734…c1c8backed Yes21c66$14 inLost-$13.862119%4 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No76c65.18$49 inWon+$15.8411272.3%81 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick73cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked No77c60$46 inWon+$13.9233867.8%229 W · 109 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked No79c59.97$47 inWon+$12.5945630%137 W · 319 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c95…52dbbacked No78c57.91$45 inWon+$12.7418947.6%90 W · 99 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes21c57.47$12 inLost-$12.27844.9%35 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes20c52.02$11 inLost-$10.5310730.8%33 W · 74 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-35.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No80c51.56$41 inWon+$10.3191773.2%671 W · 246 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11d0…69c9backed Yes24c50$12 inLost-$1211252.7%59 W · 53 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No78c31.55$25 inWon+$6.941,26858.4%740 W · 528 L-1.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No80c28.4$23 inWon+$5.681,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcb5…0539backed No78c28.26$22 inWon+$6.22580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+39.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb63d…8ee8backed No78c26.46$21 inWon+$5.826100%6 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb106…13f4backed No80c22.21$18 inWon+$4.4414455.6%80 W · 64 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb00e…43b5backed No78c21.05$16 inWon+$4.63666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No79c20$16 inWon+$4.251,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No77c20$15 inWon+$4.698651.1%504 W · 482 L-49.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked No76c19.73$15 inWon+$4.7446736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No79c16.03$13 inWon+$3.296,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf419…bf09backed No78c14.94$12 inWon+$3.29875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No78c13.64$11 inWon+$310,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47a9…4f66backed No79c13$10 inWon+$2.731181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.