Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0dc9bd0df07a183bd6be38d79a23ff6cd8410b6a491124cb1268ef294631a26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 5c | 3,801$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.84 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 78c | 598.72$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.62 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 5c | 551.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 76c | 454.13$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.63 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 438.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 20c | 340$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 334.38$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.96 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 19c | 267.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.42 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 205.36$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.14 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…3797backed Yes | 54c | 187.89$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 47 | 97.9%46 W · 1 L | +25.0wins | +0.53per pick | 45cpaid | +150.4%equal weight | 89+0.35 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 64c | 180$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6b5dbacked Yes | 35c | 170.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.28 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 34c | 160$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.15 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 159.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.04 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 18c | 131$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.42 | 1,065 | 35.1%374 W · 691 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 20c | 130.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.27 | 601 | 23.6%142 W · 459 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 16c | 124.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 305 | 26.9%82 W · 223 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 80c | 101.45$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.05 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…a808backed Yes | 23c | 88.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.52 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes | 24c | 82.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 81.07$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 17c | 76.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 70.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 63c | 66.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 51c | 66.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 24c | 60.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 25c | 60.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 22c | 60.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 207 | 11.6%24 W · 183 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 580 | 53.4%310 W · 270 L | -26.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 465 | 59.1%275 W · 190 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 44.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 39.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcc…1230backed Yes | 37c | 36.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fac…a428backed Yes | 43c | 34.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 32c | 33.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 77c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 112 | 72.3%81 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…c4febacked Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 29.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…3dccbacked Yes | 65c | 24.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 24.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 21.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 53c | 20.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 58c | 20.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 73c | 19.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C or below on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.