MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae2b7d19c0e2496aceedf0380cc31233b4ac901c83d1c312c03c1627668e1f6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 4,000$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,299.98 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 2,858$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.66 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…8913backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 2,254$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 23c | 2,100$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,607 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Atlanta Braves | 55c | 2,002$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.37 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Atlanta Braves | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed Atlanta Braves | 58c | 1,993$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.75 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…5295backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 1,355$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Atlanta Braves | 48c | 1,126$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.16 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 1,105$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.65 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Atlanta Braves | 55c | 727$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.85 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 675.29$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.22 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 597.1$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.43 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Atlanta Braves | 56c | 356.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.82 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 349.21$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.05 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Atlanta Braves | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Atlanta Braves | 56c | 224$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.44 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 222.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.36 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 182.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 112.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Atlanta Braves | 17c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 46.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Atlanta Braves | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 261 | 48.3%126 W · 135 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…6b3ebacked Atlanta Braves | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -71%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.