Asian League · resolved market
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae48a6fe240df90cd92f50637d9333f49763285944cac3083385f6c8a5d0da4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 21c | 2,327$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.98 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 79c | 1,164$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.69 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 781.82$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.05 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 27c | 646.75$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.13 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 78c | 576.42$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.42 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Over | 78c | 323.41$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 70c | 299.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 163 | 50.9%83 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 22c | 287.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 78c | 254.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 78c | 229.91$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 78c | 229.91$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa594…01c3backed Over | 79c | 186.57$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a8…9a69backed Under | 21c | 186.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 78c | 175.32$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 375 | 59.2%222 W · 153 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 79c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 72c | 80.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 31c | 74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 69c | 70.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 22c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 68c | 31.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 78c | 27.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -8.5wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 68c | 19.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked Over | 68c | 19.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 69c | 18.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
- Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.