Asian League · resolved market
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62aab3e62fc21630a5d5990d05f81d6ed8d3b6f4fbed3740c4e0ca5d9ea0f77a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 19c | 1,761$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.48 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 17c | 1,243$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.33 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 24c | 1,041$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.84 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 35c | 855$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.25 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ba…3bccbacked Over | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +331.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 322.83$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 72c | 205.79$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 64c | 156.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 79c | 127.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 29c | 118.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 1,959 | 54.6%1,069 W · 890 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef2…492fbacked Over | 22c | 88.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 23c | 80.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 23c | 80.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 28c | 71.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Under | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 192 | 68.2%131 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 21c | 63.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c73…dd8fbacked Under | 71c | 57.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Under | 79c | 41.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 74c | 30.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed Under | 71c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 73c | 15.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 74c | 14.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…827abacked Under | 80c | 14.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
- Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.