Asian League · resolved market
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4ed971b7dc8d6a73876d14f7cd2c174de6af77cde66fe2f5758d6d8cff9d237
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 3,232$1,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.13 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 33c | 2,449$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.13 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…5f81backed Over | 43c | 1,900$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.58 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 52c | 1,465$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.23 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 63c | 1,439$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.09 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 55c | 999.98$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.99 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 49c | 720.8$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.26 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 592.21$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.47 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 80c | 442.59$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.69 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 66c | 412.95$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.93 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…bc82backed Under | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb4…90f3backed Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 46c | 272.02$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.03 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 52c | 255.57$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.67 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…d028backed Under | 65c | 230.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 51c | 202$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.98 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…a56fbacked Over | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 57c | 200$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 38c | 178.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.86 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 49c | 177.83$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.69 | 122 | 44.3%54 W · 68 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 48c | 165.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 52c | 151.83$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 375 | 59.2%222 W · 153 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Over | 51c | 146.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 136.53$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…3dadbacked Under | 55c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 37c | 108.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea3d…2e9dbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…656dbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 54c | 99.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 62c | 90.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 31c | 67.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 51c | 62.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Over | 57c | 60.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 50c | 58.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 58c | 56.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 45c | 56.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 45c | 56.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 43c | 52.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…b039backed Over | 43c | 51.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 46c | 51.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 52c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…dc7cbacked Under | 48c | 47.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 40c | 40.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 48c | 40.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked Over | 47c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 32c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 67c | 29.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 45c | 29.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 45c | 29.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Over | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Under | 69c | 27.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Over | 55c | 25.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 45c | 25.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 49c | 25.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfef2…492fbacked Under | 60c | 23.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Over | 48c | 21.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…642dbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 64c | 16.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
- Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.