CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs BESTIA (BO3) - Circuit X Pantanal Cuiabá Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae59a8d15779c8472958a49082d58a64533f71beacff949b66af4701ba69cd98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BESTIAof Fake do Biru, BESTIA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,641 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Fake do Biru | 40c | 1,228$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.61 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked BESTIA | 74c | 803.19$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.03 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Fake do Biru | 25c | 517$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.25 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…eab4backed Fake do Biru | 42c | 478.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed BESTIA | 61c | 404.83$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.51 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked BESTIA | 64c | 395.02$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.94 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed BESTIA | 58c | 348.29$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.58 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked BESTIA | 70c | 303$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 345 | 42.3%146 W · 199 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked BESTIA | 79c | 300$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked BESTIA | 59c | 256.91$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.2 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Fake do Biru | 39c | 255$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked BESTIA | 72c | 210.76$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…0119backed BESTIA | 66c | 171.92$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Fake do Biru | 29c | 138.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed BESTIA | 65c | 130.77$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | -15.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…0c08backed Fake do Biru | 39c | 125.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Fake do Biru | 36c | 90.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Fake do Biru | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 229 | 31.4%72 W · 157 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Fake do Biru | 34c | 87.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked BESTIA | 70c | 85.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 1,043 | 57.3%598 W · 445 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Fake do Biru | 36c | 80.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 432 | 39.1%169 W · 263 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Fake do Biru | 16c | 65.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Fake do Biru | 27c | 64.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 178 | 36.5%65 W · 113 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…bf4bbacked Fake do Biru | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 323 | 51.4%166 W · 157 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c26…affabacked BESTIA | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Fake do Biru | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 315 | 32.4%102 W · 213 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Fake do Biru | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 392 | 37.2%146 W · 246 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed BESTIA | 75c | 40.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked BESTIA | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 180 | 63.9%115 W · 65 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Fake do Biru | 28c | 36.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x680d…98b8backed BESTIA | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 75 | 69.3%52 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed BESTIA | 65c | 30.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 447 | 43.8%196 W · 251 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0700…2623backed BESTIA | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191a…2ea6backed BESTIA | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed BESTIA | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 410 | 54.6%224 W · 186 L | +29.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbb…2948backed BESTIA | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 170 | 70%119 W · 51 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c38…a15abacked BESTIA | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed BESTIA | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 958 | 49.8%477 W · 481 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs BESTIA (BO3) - Circuit X Pantanal Cuiabá Group Bthis page
- Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs BESTIA - Map 1 WinnerBESTIA won
- Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs BESTIA - Map 2 WinnerFake do Biru won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.