Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae5c2cbff79b3860344b2fc084252d1404c4417c053de0e163ec303fc5d44e6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 50c | 586.23$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.28 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 52c | 334.82$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.12 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 62c | 198.8$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked Yes | 37c | 136.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 56c | 117.61$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 101.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 55c | 91.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 90.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 38c | 88.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…8e36backed Yes | 16c | 86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 23cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 44c | 81.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 62c | 72.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 38c | 70.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 45c | 70.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 61c | 69.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 68c | 69.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 68.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked Yes | 51c | 58.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 53.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 52.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 50.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 50.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 46.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 44c | 45.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 33c | 44.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 43.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 64c | 43.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 38c | 39.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 39c | 39.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 37.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 65c | 37.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 36c | 36.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 58c | 36.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 33.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 64c | 33.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 37c | 32.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ca…f855backed No | 62c | 32.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 64c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 30.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 36c | 30.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 42c | 28.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 48c | 28.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…07edbacked Yes | 38c | 26.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 59c | 26.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 59c | 25.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed Yes | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 63c | 23.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed Yes | 61c | 22.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 47c | 22.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 65c | 21.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 63c | 20.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 64c | 20.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 63c | 20.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 63c | 18.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 61c | 17.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.