Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x105c5fbe48801f1aa2ad2cb28664be7e71d41a700db398e1262c9f5aba5dbe0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x555a…49d5backed No | 0c | 10,013$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 56c | 452.45$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.53 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 394.32$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 42c | 278.07$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.46 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 242.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 16c | 231.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 26c | 225.07$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.06 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 24c | 198.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…7c99backed No | 70c | 193$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.95 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 31c | 157.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.85 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 133.68$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 37c | 115.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 23c | 111.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 75c | 111.13$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12c…da6ebacked No | 74c | 110.9$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 109.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 27c | 102.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.44 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 102.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 74c | 99.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 86.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 85.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 17c | 81.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 15c | 74.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 75c | 69.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 35c | 60.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 20c | 60.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 58.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 56.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 55.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 77c | 52.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e0…d772backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad1…b4c5backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 49.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 75c | 48.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 39c | 46.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 69c | 42.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 76c | 40.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 72c | 37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 71c | 28.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 66c | 27.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…8046backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 65c | 21.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 20.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 80c | 18.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 73c | 17.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 77c | 16.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 69c | 16.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 77c | 15.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98c…7c3fbacked Yes | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.