Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae5fdbf56851795c750284902bf13a325b39b205092fb307db1a1a0176c79299
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4914…4898backed Yes | 1c | 2,058$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 255.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked Yes | 28c | 235.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 192.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 33c | 152.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62c…4efcbacked No | 68c | 129.84$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 121.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 33c | 116.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 100.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 24c | 99.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 95.48$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 56c | 93.02$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 56c | 84.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0080…923cbacked Yes | 42c | 76.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 42c | 74.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed No | 80c | 72.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 72.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 72c | 68.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 72c | 68.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 73c | 68.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e06…4664backed Yes | 22c | 55.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x360f…e6e1backed Yes | 36c | 52.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 50.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 23c | 45.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed Yes | 44c | 42.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 75c | 41.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…574abacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…88b4backed Yes | 48c | 28.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd971…f3c1backed No | 65c | 28.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 24.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed Yes | 44c | 24.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 20.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…0b95backed No | 76c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 73c | 18.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 16.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 66c | 16.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.