MLB · resolved market
First Round Pool B: Italy vs. Brazil
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae98589abafdea21c68128adbb13032f7260a7fe46efe35a787469c1931fb4ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Italyof Italy, Brazil
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,496 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Brazil | 13c | 1,065$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.79 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Brazil | 12c | 1,001$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d6…926ebacked Brazil | 14c | 999.97$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…9863backed Brazil | 8c | 993.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Brazil | 11c | 990.89$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…2224backed Brazil | 12c | 883.09$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Brazil | 13c | 799.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 367 | 29.4%108 W · 259 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Brazil | 11c | 324$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Brazil | 16c | 294.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Brazil | 11c | 292$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Brazil | 16c | 284$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…7babbacked Brazil | 16c | 267.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Brazil | 11c | 256.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40a…7e07backed Brazil | 9c | 170$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Brazil | 15c | 149.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Brazil | 12c | 132.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Brazil | 17c | 107.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Brazil | 29c | 104.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Brazil | 14c | 103.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Brazil | 23c | 101.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Brazil | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Brazil | 19c | 96.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Brazil | 12c | 89.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Brazil | 18c | 74.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Brazil | 22c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Brazil | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Italy | 66c | 31.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…e36ebacked Italy | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…e407backed Italy | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…3d97backed Italy | 76c | 19.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Italy | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.