Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Murray State Racers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae9d6780f583baf790e1e5942da21e02b9dc143a688707865b108def42b28b43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Murray State Racersof Murray State Racers, UIC Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed UIC Flames | 51c | 9,978$5,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,132.76 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Murray State Racers | 48c | 7,977$3,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,130 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Murray State Racers | 48c | 7,476$3,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,900.7 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked UIC Flames | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked UIC Flames | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Murray State Racers | 48c | 1,397$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.84 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Murray State Racers | 47c | 833.56$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.45 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed UIC Flames | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5200backed UIC Flames | 56c | 568.56$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.18 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Murray State Racers | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 388 | 37.6%146 W · 242 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Murray State Racers | 53c | 362.3$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.5 | 441 | 46.5%205 W · 236 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Murray State Racers | 48c | 321.54$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.2 | 423 | 39.2%166 W · 257 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed UIC Flames | 56c | 202.11$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 237 | 54.9%130 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Murray State Racers | 49c | 176.3$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked UIC Flames | 47c | 160$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 315 | 37.8%119 W · 196 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Murray State Racers | 49c | 148.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c3…ed8fbacked UIC Flames | 56c | 113.71$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed UIC Flames | 55c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1487…d443backed UIC Flames | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Murray State Racers | 48c | 25.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed UIC Flames | 54c | 23.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Murray State Racers | 53c | 22.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Murray State Racers (-6.5)this page
- UIC Flames vs. Murray State RacersMurray State Racers won
- UIC Flames vs. Murray State Racers: O/U 158.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.