Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
UIC Flames vs. Murray State Racers: O/U 158.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc41b08580ea3501ffc6db1f0ee6fef121db4eec89b39b9d4091a01e09cd15793
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,699.99 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 8,925$4,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,199.25 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 47c | 8,230$3,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,868.21 | 216 | 36.1%78 W · 138 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Under | 52c | 5,470$2,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,625.43 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 301 | 39.2%118 W · 183 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 47c | 4,317$2,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,029.16 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 3,038$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.34 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Under | 55c | 2,736$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.32 | 212 | 48.1%102 W · 110 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 47c | 2,430$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.09 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Over | 47c | 1,777$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.19 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…0f7abacked Under | 53c | 1,546$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.67 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 47c | 1,463$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.61 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 47c | 957.45$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Over | 47c | 756$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.32 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Over | 47c | 755.32$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 274 | 50%137 W · 137 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 47c | 631$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.57 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 241 | 21.2%51 W · 190 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +299%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 48c | 229.83$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.57 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 47c | 177.55$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.45 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 47c | 121$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 53c | 82.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Under | 54c | 77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8d…674fbacked Under | 53c | 68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 54c | 56.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba87…bc76backed Under | 55c | 54.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Over | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +6.4wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Over | 48c | 33.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 427 | 51.8%221 W · 206 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Under | 54c | 28.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UIC Flames vs. Murray State Racers: O/U 158.5this page
- Spread: Murray State Racers (-6.5)Murray State Racers won
- UIC Flames vs. Murray State RacersMurray State Racers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.