TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 140.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,344

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,344 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under53c4,970$2,652 inLost-$2,651.723243.5%101 W · 131 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over49c2,317$1,135 inWon+$1,181.4539454.6%215 W · 179 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c1,712$802 inWon+$909.9612,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under14c885.51$124 inLost-$123.931,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over46c505.5$233 inWon+$272.975,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over46c480.43$221 inWon+$259.4346246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…bf20backed Over61c322.94$198 inWon+$124.61717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-56.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over47c243.18$114 inWon+$128.881,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1a9…4c18backed Under53c200.22$106 inLost-$106.122564%16 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d82…e16abacked Under53c187.03$99 inLost-$99.131450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Under52c131.62$68 inLost-$68.449452.1%49 W · 45 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over47c123$58 inWon+$64.862,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9422…cfeebacked Under53c107.39$57 inLost-$56.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under52c98.7$51 inLost-$51.323,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under51c97.98$50 inLost-$49.974,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Under22c85.43$18 inLost-$18.4171655.3%396 W · 320 L+26.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under45c83.44$37 inLost-$37.351,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over63c68.1$43 inWon+$25.44,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Over47c61.93$29 inWon+$32.8282846.1%382 W · 446 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Over48c59.89$29 inWon+$31.141,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37aa…01f4backed Under53c22.44$12 inLost-$11.91216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over49c22.33$11 inWon+$11.3960954.5%332 W · 277 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.