Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6182d98c9b72cb9ace4419169e3669b043982e38b238d0b7dfef7a36ddd39754
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginia Cavaliersof Duke Blue Devils, Virginia Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,696 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Duke Blue Devils | 45c | 11,437$5,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,125.38 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec1…057cbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 56c | 8,786$4,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,829.04 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Duke Blue Devils | 44c | 2,421$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.72 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Virginia Cavaliers | 53c | 2,097$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.56 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 54c | 1,836$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.62 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Virginia Cavaliers | 56c | 919.69$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.66 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…2f94backed Virginia Cavaliers | 56c | 885.16$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.47 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Duke Blue Devils | 44c | 651.54$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.68 | 301 | 39.2%118 W · 183 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Duke Blue Devils | 43c | 528.83$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.7 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Virginia Cavaliers | 54c | 521.27$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.2 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc04…1c43backed Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 432.24$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.26 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Duke Blue Devils | 44c | 396.55$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.48 | 301 | 52.8%159 W · 142 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Duke Blue Devils | 45c | 390.18$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.22 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Duke Blue Devils | 44c | 381.19$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.73 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ac…8fc5backed Virginia Cavaliers | 56c | 354.06$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.79 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Virginia Cavaliers | 55c | 345.57$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.86 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Virginia Cavaliers | 54c | 311.27$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.18 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…cfe5backed Virginia Cavaliers | 56c | 297.41$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.86 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Virginia Cavaliers | 51c | 219.52$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.57 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Virginia Cavaliers | 54c | 218.93$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.71 | 536 | 35.6%191 W · 345 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 215.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x599e…0277backed Virginia Cavaliers | 56c | 203.23$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Duke Blue Devils | 45c | 179.43$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.74 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 53c | 177.16$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 174.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.45 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Virginia Cavaliers | 54c | 148.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Virginia Cavaliers | 55c | 134.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 122.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…c2efbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 54c | 91.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 230 | 54.3%125 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Virginia Cavaliers | 56c | 91.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Duke Blue Devils | 44c | 90.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 229 | 50.7%116 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…650fbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 56c | 88.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Duke Blue Devils | 44c | 68.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Duke Blue Devils | 47c | 63.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 61.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f34…94d0backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 61.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Virginia Cavaliers | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…f23ebacked Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 57.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Virginia Cavaliers | 55c | 51.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 47.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Virginia Cavaliers | 55c | 45.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Duke Blue Devils | 44c | 45.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Duke Blue Devils | 44c | 44.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 276 | 50.7%140 W · 136 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Duke Blue Devils | 45c | 41.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 37.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Virginia Cavaliers | 54c | 36.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Duke Blue Devils | 44c | 35.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Duke Blue Devils | 46c | 28.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Duke Blue Devils | 45c | 27.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…585fbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 55c | 19.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-7.5)this page
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-2.5)Duke Blue Devils won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5)Virginia Cavaliers won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5)Virginia Cavaliers won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-8.5)Virginia Cavaliers won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue DevilsDuke Blue Devils won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 140.5Over won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 141.5Over won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 143.5Over won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 144.5Under won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 145.5Under won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 146.5Under won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 147.5Under won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 148.5Under won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 152.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.