Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe7e1551e818e2eff468bec554dae82651abda89ec813a8ebdd55d4b45454d4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginia Cavaliersof Duke Blue Devils, Virginia Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,105 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Duke Blue Devils | 45c | 1,137$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.88 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 1,118$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.09 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb451…37f3backed Virginia Cavaliers | 57c | 999.99$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 816.58$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.92 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 630.12$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.32 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 589.04$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 576$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Virginia Cavaliers | 51c | 502.22$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.14 | 237 | 54.9%130 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 495.63$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.81 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Duke Blue Devils | 49c | 447.06$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.06 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 399.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.62 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Virginia Cavaliers | 51c | 333.93$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.72 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 306.64$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.32 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 280.36$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.38 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…5ec0backed Duke Blue Devils | 56c | 272.82$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 257.73$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.86 | 536 | 35.6%191 W · 345 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 253$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…6137backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 199.13$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…dedebacked Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 198.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Duke Blue Devils | 51c | 194.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Virginia Cavaliers | 51c | 151.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…e952backed Virginia Cavaliers | 51c | 145.77$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Virginia Cavaliers | 55c | 129.78$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…2687backed Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 79.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d75…ab74backed Duke Blue Devils | 43c | 71.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8317…18e3backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 49.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 56c | 46.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Duke Blue Devils | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5)this page
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-2.5)Duke Blue Devils won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5)Virginia Cavaliers won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-7.5)Virginia Cavaliers won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-8.5)Virginia Cavaliers won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue DevilsDuke Blue Devils won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 140.5Over won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 141.5Over won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 143.5Over won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 144.5Under won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 145.5Under won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 146.5Under won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 147.5Under won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 148.5Under won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 152.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.