Tennis · resolved market
Wuxi: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ognjen Milic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaefd4385c4233512c1bc0bde109d2f6b24777ef7da171edd8ae9e245c85afa10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ognjen Milicof Luca Castelnuovo, Ognjen Milic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Luca Castelnuovo | 17c | 3,504$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.54 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Ognjen Milic | 75c | 1,312$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.82 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Luca Castelnuovo | 21c | 1,008$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.72 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 15c | 987.77$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.05 | 621 | 40.7%253 W · 368 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…e6a5backed Luca Castelnuovo | 39c | 519.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 259 | 57.1%148 W · 111 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Luca Castelnuovo | 23c | 513.81$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.07 | 803 | 41.8%336 W · 467 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 26c | 299.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd3…fed4backed Ognjen Milic | 75c | 200.13$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 27c | 194.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Luca Castelnuovo | 14c | 188.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Luca Castelnuovo | 21c | 144.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 47%55 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 37c | 135.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Ognjen Milic | 63c | 129.09$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 19c | 127.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Luca Castelnuovo | 20c | 110.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1,028 | 43.3%445 W · 583 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Luca Castelnuovo | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,076 | 55.5%597 W · 479 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 22c | 94.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Luca Castelnuovo | 25c | 80.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Ognjen Milic | 62c | 77.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783f…8f90backed Luca Castelnuovo | 23c | 44.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 128 | 31.3%40 W · 88 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb006…3458backed Luca Castelnuovo | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 29c | 40.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | -74.2wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Luca Castelnuovo | 37c | 40.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Ognjen Milic | 73c | 35.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f7…a181backed Luca Castelnuovo | 38c | 33.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 513 | 47%241 W · 272 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Ognjen Milic | 62c | 30.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Ognjen Milic | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 599 | 65.8%394 W · 205 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Ognjen Milic | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 528 | 54.9%290 W · 238 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ognjen Milic | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d1…3744backed Ognjen Milic | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1,104 | 66.9%739 W · 365 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked Ognjen Milic | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…1e80backed Ognjen Milic | 66c | 22.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Ognjen Milic | 69c | 22.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 370 | 58.6%217 W · 153 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Ognjen Milic | 61c | 21.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…cebfbacked Ognjen Milic | 69c | 16.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 671 | 78.7%528 W · 143 L | +49.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Ognjen Milic | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 405 | 48.1%195 W · 210 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.