NHL · resolved market
Kraken vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf2d5b78de1ef24d1f4e4fb55913b3737efb25287bf06094a82cacc51badc7ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Over | 46c | 15,808$7,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,271.73 | 315 | 46.3%146 W · 169 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Under | 54c | 15,099$8,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,945.54 | 448 | 48.9%219 W · 229 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Over | 45c | 7,000$3,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,149.99 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 55c | 5,316$2,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,392.07 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…ff14backed Under | 55c | 1,284$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.64 | 480 | 50.6%243 W · 237 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…ef6bbacked Under | 57c | 722.64$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 416.02$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.89 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 57c | 371$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.53 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Under | 55c | 225.52$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Under | 55c | 223$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.35 | 201 | 47.3%95 W · 106 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 41c | 179.14$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Under | 58c | 123.81$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5854…1f78backed Under | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Over | 40c | 93.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 43c | 87.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64cc…ad9dbacked Under | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…3363backed Under | 55c | 64.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 56c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 46c | 45.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…4f9cbacked Under | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Under | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kraken vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5this page
- Kraken vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Kraken vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.