NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x712c010af211183414ac9f68f133644ad4575424d4b48d5761bbb31d9bdf345e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Capitals, Kraken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $295,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $288,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $295,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23ff…b3c1backed Capitals | 47c | 63,794$29,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,810.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfe…fd89backed Capitals | 47c | 56,326$26,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,852.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ef…2b87backed Kraken | 53c | 14,846$7,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,868.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d1…91b3backed Kraken | 53c | 12,193$6,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,462.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…b5e1backed Kraken | 53c | 11,745$6,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,224.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…9789backed Capitals | 46c | 10,977$5,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,927.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…ceebbacked Capitals | 46c | 10,753$4,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,806.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x130a…f07bbacked Kraken | 53c | 9,366$4,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,963.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…856abacked Capitals | 46c | 9,059$4,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,891.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1007backed Kraken | 53c | 8,656$4,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,587.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af4…17adbacked Capitals | 46c | 8,621$3,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,655.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…a89abacked Capitals | 46c | 8,589$3,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,638.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8447…dc20backed Kraken | 53c | 7,818$4,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,143.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Capitals | 51c | 7,667$3,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,756.61 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a48…69ddbacked Kraken | 53c | 7,642$4,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,050.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf159…9f3fbacked Capitals | 46c | 7,075$3,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,820.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f4…59babacked Kraken | 53c | 6,481$3,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,434.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x603d…cbbdbacked Capitals | 46c | 6,362$2,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,435.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc879…fbbebacked Capitals | 46c | 6,103$2,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,295.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…c6d9backed Kraken | 53c | 5,920$3,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,137.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481f…833cbacked Capitals | 46c | 5,765$2,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,113.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 45cpaid | +125%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…88a6backed Capitals | 46c | 5,760$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,110.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Kraken | 49c | 5,523$2,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,702.82 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x400f…c219backed Kraken | 53c | 5,474$2,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,901.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…40a3backed Kraken | 53c | 5,385$2,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,854.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc372…bb36backed Capitals | 46c | 5,382$2,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,906.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 45cpaid | +125%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…7507backed Kraken | 53c | 5,069$2,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,686.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…08d1backed Kraken | 53c | 5,022$2,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,661.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ed…4f00backed Kraken | 53c | 4,758$2,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,521.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc486…f261backed Kraken | 53c | 4,674$2,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,477.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe878…970bbacked Capitals | 46c | 4,493$2,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,426.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582e…679bbacked Kraken | 53c | 4,369$2,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,315.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cde…ab81backed Kraken | 53c | 4,319$2,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,289.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc68c…8880backed Capitals | 46c | 4,096$1,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,211.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…bfb9backed Kraken | 53c | 4,056$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,149.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Capitals | 52c | 3,689$1,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785.93 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…77d3backed Capitals | 46c | 3,639$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,965.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac5…aab0backed Capitals | 46c | 3,577$1,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,931.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…f64cbacked Capitals | 46c | 3,531$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cce…f81ebacked Capitals | 46c | 3,432$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,853.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e6…9305backed Kraken | 53c | 3,419$1,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,812.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…773abacked Capitals | 46c | 3,396$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b9…6992backed Kraken | 53c | 3,265$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,730.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…cd00backed Kraken | 53c | 3,009$1,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…ce4bbacked Kraken | 53c | 2,891$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c33…f036backed Kraken | 53c | 2,798$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Kraken | 50c | 2,750$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9d…f5adbacked Capitals | 46c | 2,655$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…c758backed Kraken | 53c | 2,626$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cad…6bcbbacked Capitals | 46c | 2,540$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,371.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4221…0fdcbacked Capitals | 46c | 2,503$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e5…78e0backed Kraken | 53c | 2,407$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc53…03cbbacked Kraken | 53c | 2,193$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…c423backed Capitals | 46c | 2,148$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kraken | 49c | 1,520$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.41 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6073…98abbacked Capitals | 46c | 1,489$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…12aabacked Kraken | 53c | 1,311$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c07…a0a9backed Capitals | 46c | 1,177$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Kraken | 49c | 922$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.78 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc83…9a49backed Kraken | 53c | 878$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a79…bec4backed Kraken | 53c | 718$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0790…beccbacked Kraken | 53c | 706$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973d…e026backed Capitals | 46c | 552$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kraken | 48c | 365$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.2 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Kraken | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Capitals | 47c | 60.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa304…9311backed Kraken | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…274ebacked Kraken | 53c | 33.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…380bbacked Capitals | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf11e…c8d6backed Capitals | 50c | 30.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cd…a5f5backed Kraken | 52c | 26.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…1888backed Kraken | 52c | 21.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa4…a1bfbacked Kraken | 51c | 20.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Kraken vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Kraken vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kraken vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.