Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf4d302b276404f0805825c4a4802a8707d75c788758cc4c31b7aaa23fbd7a8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Cerundolo, Hanfmann
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48b8…4b69backed Hanfmann | 53c | 996.12$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.95 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…e309backed Cerundolo | 47c | 525.06$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.77 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb5…f531backed Cerundolo | 47c | 324.29$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.29 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Cerundolo | 46c | 268.8$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.15 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d87…abeabacked Cerundolo | 47c | 266.81$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.41 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Hanfmann | 55c | 266.57$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.93 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…e019backed Hanfmann | 53c | 230.12$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.96 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Cerundolo | 45c | 219.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.81 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cca…08a9backed Cerundolo | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e4…7e20backed Hanfmann | 54c | 194.42$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.02 | 187 | 47.6%89 W · 98 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Hanfmann | 41c | 192.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 357 | 30.5%109 W · 248 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Cerundolo | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Cerundolo | 43c | 79.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Cerundolo | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Cerundolo | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf795…ab90backed Hanfmann | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Hanfmann | 53c | 30.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Cerundolo | 47c | 28.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…a6b0backed Cerundolo | 55c | 28.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked Hanfmann | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9c…4772backed Hanfmann | 45c | 25.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cerundolo | 43c | 25.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c6…d3d9backed Cerundolo | 47c | 24.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Cerundolo | 55c | 22.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1619…ca7bbacked Hanfmann | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5)this page
- Cerundolo vs. Hanfmann: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Cerundolo vs. Hanfmann: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Francisco Cerundolo vs. Yannick Hanfmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Yannick HanfmannFrancisco Cerundolo won
- Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs HanfmannCerundolo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.