Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 54°F or higher on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf5fe1e3117c9c0df1611cbdc4ec463beffb2bb76c0c3d261b1c73756e8657e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed No | 2c | 1,353$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 6c | 699.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15f…93d7backed No | 23c | 387.17$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 67c | 331.26$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 71c | 322.64$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.7 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed No | 37c | 252.55$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.71 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 26c | 250.82$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked No | 41c | 240.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa061…2c51backed No | 14c | 219.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 16c | 177.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 69c | 174.06$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 30c | 159.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…6e24backed No | 14c | 142$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 137.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 18c | 136.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 30c | 131.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4271…631dbacked Yes | 76c | 128.76$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…9e87backed Yes | 77c | 116.73$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 34c | 107.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…c916backed Yes | 68c | 99.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 28c | 90.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 16c | 89.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeac…2970backed No | 19c | 85.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 19c | 79.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked Yes | 77c | 78.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8f…3179backed No | 20c | 67.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 67c | 56.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd9…825abacked No | 21c | 53.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 77c | 48.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 24c | 46.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed No | 32c | 44.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c3…5928backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc504…fa7cbacked Yes | 77c | 39.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…37a0backed No | 75c | 37.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 65c | 36.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 32c | 34.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 68c | 30.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…cef2backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf5…20f8backed Yes | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 70c | 27.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 76c | 26.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 78c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 74c | 25.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 77c | 25.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de4…593dbacked Yes | 79c | 24.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…0a7ebacked Yes | 59c | 24.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked Yes | 59c | 22.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked Yes | 69c | 21.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…b41bbacked Yes | 68c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed Yes | 68c | 16.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…fe1bbacked Yes | 70c | 16.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 74c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 76c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked Yes | 77c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 73c | 13.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 54°F or higher on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 35°F or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 36-37°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.