NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Wild: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf66bf6c62e9c0d4bd9470dca2d31ffae2cca561ed5f5637d1096e021931449b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Under | 54c | 4,456$2,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,049.8 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4d…6055backed Over | 46c | 4,350$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 3,029$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.99 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 55c | 2,180$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Under | 56c | 2,157$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.14 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 45c | 1,393$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.99 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 45c | 806$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.7 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 45c | 546.41$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.88 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 56c | 198.07$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 46c | 97.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 45c | 72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 18c | 65.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe71f…09f2backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 43c | 31.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 44c | 23.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d47…7861backed Under | 57c | 21.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Under | 56c | 20.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Wild: O/U 6.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. WildWild won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Wild won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.