South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Sarmiento vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf6d463093d48cdc2a33a5c6d2b16a4c1719ebfdaad511b33f6fb8dde178519e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Under | 64c | 17,166$10,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,180.79 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 36c | 14,059$5,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,027 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 32c | 4,200$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 3,795$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.91 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 25c | 1,600$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 77c | 1,222$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.51 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 36c | 1,101$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.37 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 32c | 1,016$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.18 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 36c | 631.51$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.51 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 32c | 484.38$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 67c | 402.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.99 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 65c | 376$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.7 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 70c | 360$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…90ebbacked Under | 55c | 352.73$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.73 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd16…6667backed Under | 65c | 318$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 53c | 309.43$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 63c | 210$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Over | 32c | 124.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 61c | 103.48$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 59c | 92.02$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 72c | 86.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…1b45backed Over | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Under | 63c | 71.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 27c | 54.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 36c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 24c | 50.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 79c | 36.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 77c | 36.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 52c | 23.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cd…2da0backed Under | 69c | 20.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8d…c1cbbacked Under | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 69c | 14.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…f59abacked Under | 79c | 13.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Estudiantes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Sarmiento vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AA Estudiantes (-2.5)CA Sarmiento won
- Spread: CA Sarmiento (-1.5)AA Estudiantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.