MLB · resolved market
White Sox vs. Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf786606ae7cdbfe24a6b4cc5bf6907c94af46c718a30e02bc4d4135e0a60190
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royalsof White Sox, Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed White Sox | 33c | 1,387$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.86 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed White Sox | 28c | 1,380$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.46 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e9…df05backed White Sox | 38c | 1,049$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Royals | 62c | 1,012$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.47 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Royals | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed White Sox | 31c | 998.22$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.33 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Royals | 72c | 794.91$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.84 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Royals | 71c | 578.1$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.65 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Royals | 67c | 400$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Royals | 63c | 307.65$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.68 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royals | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Royals | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed White Sox | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked White Sox | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked White Sox | 33c | 89.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Royals | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Royals | 68c | 43.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Royals | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Royals | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Royals | 67c | 22.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Royals | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Royals | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Royals | 67c | 15.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Royals | 77c | 13.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.