MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf83b1b7477ac25ea53322c04814968e5bf583ccf447b826de16ee4a0c79baf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 46c | 2,674$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.82 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 2,029$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.86 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 54c | 1,905$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.46 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 54c | 883.65$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.48 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 838.91$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.4 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 54c | 558.7$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.7 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…4d90backed Over | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…aa92backed Over | 55c | 418.18$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.18 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 272.16$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 48c | 207.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Under | 50c | 201.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 56c | 142.93$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…c8e7backed Over | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 54c | 114.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Under | 47c | 113$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3f…14c4backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 46c | 87.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 79.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 50c | 67.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x295a…5adabacked Over | 58c | 61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 56.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…796bbacked Over | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 40.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…5422backed Over | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…6831backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…0e08backed Over | 53c | 28.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 46c | 23.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 45c | 22.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 45c | 22.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Over | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5this page
- NRFI: Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.