MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x109506bc04e8541e33a910a0cf27bfaa32bcc358b4b1000058d050e0167f7a35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $251,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $251,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 54c | 207,534$111,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111,364.32 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 47c | 200,000$93,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106,999.99 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe934…640bbacked Under | 54c | 25,143$13,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,577.24 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.31per pick | 53cpaid | -58%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 45c | 18,215$8,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,018.02 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,400 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 45c | 3,887$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,138.93 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 54c | 3,480$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.18 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Under | 54c | 3,260$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760.4 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Over | 45c | 2,288$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.4 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 2,103$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.59 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 46c | 2,000$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.4 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…1118backed Under | 57c | 1,769$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 45c | 1,533$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.92 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 1,418$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.09 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 1,264$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.07 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 940.19$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.82 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 45c | 307.62$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.88 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 45c | 300.73$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.4 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 45c | 300.73$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.4 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 45c | 300.73$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.4 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 45c | 300.73$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.4 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Over | 45c | 300.73$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.4 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 45c | 233.96$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.68 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 43c | 225.93$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.53 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe226…95a5backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Under | 56c | 178.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 45c | 120.29$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.16 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Over | 45c | 107.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 45c | 100.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 44c | 81.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 44c | 75.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Over | 45c | 72.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Over | 45c | 67.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 45c | 59.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…c12ebacked Over | 46c | 53.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over | 46c | 50.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 45c | 44.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Over | 46c | 43.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 57c | 39.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 38.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Over | 35c | 31.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 30.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 42c | 30.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…8a76backed Over | 46c | 26.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Under | 53c | 24.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 49c | 23.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 47c | 21.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…4563backed Over | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- NRFI: Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.