MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x942c2c8388c02b3ad66152e82a8800037e63732f07a559288c4095920d02dbdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6165…db3cbacked Texas Rangers | 61c | 11,569$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,568.63 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 4,763$1,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,857.5 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 3,132$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.45 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 2,222$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.8 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 1,596$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.36 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 17c | 723.88$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.53 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 370.25$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Texas Rangers | 58c | 364.32$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.01 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Texas Rangers | 58c | 299.99$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Texas Rangers | 71c | 240.71$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.91 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 398 | 50.3%200 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 69.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…6518backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 64.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3713…1b94backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…747cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -8.1wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 30.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 18.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
- Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.