South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Belgrano vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf8c17c95d23f91a9f727979744445c8dda55a39efe2a163d6cefaa8cbbb563d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dbe…9013backed Over | 34c | 2,941$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 66c | 1,250$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 67c | 1,118$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.03 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 66c | 1,104$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.42 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 33c | 987$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.71 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 66c | 609.21$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.27 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 66c | 599.96$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.99 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 67c | 595$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.35 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Over | 35c | 525.16$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.41 | 210 | 44.3%93 W · 117 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 66c | 508.72$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.96 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 34c | 482.01$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.85 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 34c | 478.98$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.85 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Under | 66c | 474$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.16 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 405.25$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.78 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under | 65c | 285.36$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.88 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…73fabacked Over | 36c | 270$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 33c | 142.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 67c | 130$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 33c | 130$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 194 | 47.9%93 W · 101 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Over | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked Under | 67c | 103.42$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 24c | 94.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…dff0backed Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 67c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Over | 34c | 47.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…90b1backed Over | 50c | 43.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55a3…fd93backed Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed Under | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…43afbacked Over | 34c | 30.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +287.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 55c | 24.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 60 | 78.3%47 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 80cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Belgrano vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Belgrano vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Belgrano vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Belgrano vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Belgrano vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Belgrano vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Belgrano vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Belgrano vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Belgrano vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-1.5)CA Belgrano won
- Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-2.5)CA Belgrano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.