Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf8f64b6702a3f2723b0eefabeae0a14ecc1338915bf008aef97a24c06c2721b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,293$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f6…c76cbacked No | 48c | 524.13$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.69 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +65%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 229.11$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c0…1191backed Yes | 25c | 192.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 51c | 191.75$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.87 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 45c | 184.32$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.64 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 37c | 164.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 54c | 148.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 43c | 119.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.61 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 112$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 54c | 111.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 97.31$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 91.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 56c | 89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 85.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed No | 60c | 80.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 43c | 69.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 59.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 57.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe91b…8833backed No | 62c | 56.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 52.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 51.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 59c | 33.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 58c | 25.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 55c | 22.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 63c | 19.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.